After analyzing the NFC playoff picture, it’s becoming increasingly likely the Packers will need to finish 11-5 to secure a post-season berth.
The Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) and Dallas Cowboys (9-5) are still battling for the NFC East title, with the loser getting involved in a three-team shuffle with the Packers (9-5) and New York Giants (8-6) for two NFC wild-card berths.
The Packers will receive a playoff invitation if they win their remaining games against Seattle and at Arizona. However, if they split those games and finish 10-6, it’s very possible the Packers will spend their offseason on the couch.
Packers coach Mike McCarthy has talked a lot about the magical 10-victory plateau, but chances are that won’t be good enough to crash the playoff party this season.
Here’s why:
The Giants host Carolina this week, a game they should win. Then they play at Minnesota against a Vikings team that will likely have nothing to play for in the regular-season finale. Thus, there’s a good chance the Giants will win that game and finish 10-6.
The Cowboys are flying high after knocking off the previously unbeaten New Orleans Saints last week. They carry a lot of momentum into their game at Washington next week, which they should win handily. Then they close at home against Philadelphia. The Cowboys have already beaten the Eagles on the road this season, so it would be natural to assume they can complete the season sweep with a victory at home.
If that happens, the Cowboys would claim the NFC East title and the Eagles would be handed one of the wild-card berths.
The Packers would capture the other berth with an 11-5 record, and would receive the No. 5 seed over the Eagles based on a better record against common opponents. That means the Packers would travel to No. 4 seed Arizona in the first round of the playoffs for a rematch of their regular-season finale, and incredibly, the Eagles would play at Dallas in another rematch of a regular-season finale.
However, if the Packers lose either of their final two games, they could find themselves on the outside looking in. If the Packers and Giants are deadlocked at 10-6, the Giants earn the tiebreaker nod based on a better record against common opponents.
One way the Packers will make the playoffs with a 10-6 record is if there’s a three-way tie with the Cowboys and Giants. In that case, the NFL first breaks the tie between division teams, meaning the Giants get the nod over the Cowboys for one wild-card berth based on their season sweep. Then the Packers would get the wild-card nod over the Cowboys based on the Packers’ 17-7 win over Dallas this season.
Another way for the Packers to get in with a 10-6 record is for the Giants to lose one of their final two games.
The Packers should beat Seattle easily this week, which means their playoff fate could very well come down to their game against the Cardinals.
It’s been commonly assumed the Cardinals would have nothing to play for since they’ve already locked up the NFC West Division title and would presumably rest many starters.
However, it’s possible the Cardinals will be fighting for a higher playoff seed, meaning the Packers could be in for the battle of their playoff lives on Jan. 3 in Arizona.
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